Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C

2018 - Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, no. 21, 11,895-11,903

Smith, D.M. | Scaife, A. A., Hawkins, E. , Bilbao, R., Boer, G.J., Caian, M., Caron, L.‐P., Danabasoglu, G., Delworth, T., Doblas‐Reyes, F.J., Doescher, R., Dunstone, N.J., Eade, R., Hermanson, L., Ishii, M., Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Koenigk, T., Kushnir, Y., Matei, D., Meehl, G.A., Menegoz, M., Merryfield, W.J., Mochizuki, T., Müller, W.A., Pohlmann, H., Power, S., Rixen, M., Sospedra‐Alfonso, R., Tuma, M., Wyser, K., Yang, X., Yeager, S.

Tropical rainfall predictions from multiple seasonal forecast systems

2018 - International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 39, no.2, 974-988

Scaife, A. | Ferranti, L., Alves, O., Athanasidis, P., Baehr, J., Deque, M., Dippe, T., Dunestone, N., Fereday, D., Gudgel, R.G., Greatbatch, R., Hermanson, L., Imada, Y., Jain, S., Kumar, A., MacLachlan, C., Merryfield, W., Müller, W.A., Ren, H.-L., Smith, D., Takaya, Y., Vecchi, G., Yang, X.

Improved Seasonal Prediction of European Summer Temperatures With New Five‐Layer Soil‐Hydrology Scheme

2018 - Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 346–353

Bunzel, F. | Müller, W. A., Dobrynin, M., Fröhlich, K., Hagemann, S., Pohlmann, H., Tobias Stacke, Baehr, J.

Time dependency of the prediction skill for the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in initialized decadal hindcasts

2018 - Climate Dynamics 51(5-6), 1947–1970

Brune, S. | Düsterhus, A., Pohlmann, H., Müller, W. A., Baehr, J.

Internal variability in European summer temperatures at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming

2018 - Environ. Res. Lett. 13 064026

Laura Suarez-Gutierrez | Chao Li, Wolfgang A Müller, Jochem Marotzke

Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions

2018 - Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 701-715

Sebastian Illing | Christopher Kadow, Holger Pohlmann, and Claudia Timmreck

A Higher‐resolution Version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI‐ESM1.2‐HR)

2018 - JAMES, 10, 1383-1413

Müller, W. A., | Jungclaus, J.H., Mauritzen, T., Baehr, J., Bittner, M., Budich, R., Bunzel, F., Esch, M., Ghosh, R., Haak, H., Ilyina, T., Kleine, T., Kornblueh, L., Li, H., Modali, K., Pohlmann, H., Roeckner, E., Stemmler, I., Tian, F., Marotzke, J.

Improved Teleconnection‐Based Dynamical Seasonal Predictions of Boreal Winter

2018 - Geophys. Res. Lett., 45

Dobrynin, M. | D. I. V. Domeisen, W. A. Müller, L. Bell, S. Brune, F. Bunzel, A. Düsterhus, K. Fröhlich, H. Pohlmann, J. Baehr

An effective drift correction for dynamical downscaling of decadal global climate predictions

2018 - Climate Dynamics

Paeth, H. | J. Li, F. Pollinger, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, H. Feldmann, H.-J. Panitz